Renters Are Staying Put. Here Is What That Means for Homeowners in Arizona and Texas.
The rental market has generated a lot of headlines about softening rents and rising vacancy. But there is a data story getting far less attention, and it is one that matters more to rental Homeowners than any monthly rent figure.
The Number That Changes the Conversation
More than half of all apartment leasing activity in the United States is now lease renewals. According to CBRE's 2026 market outlook, renewed leases account for 57% of all U.S. apartment leasing activity, up from 51% in 2015 and 48% in 2005. That shift did not happen overnight, and it is not a coincidence. Residents across the country are choosing to stay where they are at a rate that has no recent precedent.
Renter mobility tells the same story. Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies put the household mobility rate at 11.2% in 2024, the lowest figure ever recorded in the American Community Survey. For context, that number was 15% in 2006. In Texas, renter mobility fell from 30.6% in 2014 to 26.8% in 2024. The portion of renter households that moved in the past year now stands at 18.3%, compared to 37.2% in 1981.
Residents are not going anywhere. The question is why, and what it means for Homeowners with property in Phoenix, Tucson, Dallas, and Austin.
Why Renters Are Staying
The short answer is that moving costs more than it used to, in almost every sense. Mortgage rates averaged 6.71% in the first week of September 2026. In January 2021, that same figure was 2.65%. On a $400,000 home with 20% down, the difference between those two rates is roughly $780 per month. That math keeps a lot of people in the rental market who would otherwise be buying.
And those homeowners who locked in rates below 4% are not selling, either. As of the first quarter of 2026, 49.9% of all outstanding U.S. mortgages carried rates of 4% or lower, and 77.9% sat below 6%. Selling means giving up a rate that cannot be replaced. Most homeowners are choosing to hold.
The result is a housing market where both ends of the transaction have frozen. Existing owners are not selling. Would-be buyers cannot afford to buy. The National Association of Realtors reported that first-time buyers made up just 21% of the U.S. market in 2025, the lowest share ever recorded. The median age of a first-time buyer has reached 40. Existing home sales in 2024 hit 4.06 million, the lowest annual total since 1995, and 2026 is pacing at the same rate.
With fewer homes for sale and mortgage payments at multi-decade highs, the renter pool is not shrinking. It is deepening. Federal Reserve Bank of New York researchers found that the average renter's three-year moving probability dropped from 57% in 2014 to 37% in 2026. The share of renters who expect to ever own a home fell from roughly 52% in 2015 to about 35% in 2025. These are not temporary adjustments. They reflect a structural shift in who rents and for how long.
What This Looks Like in Phoenix, Tucson, Dallas, and Austin
Each of the four On Q Property Management markets has its own dynamics, but all four share the same underlying conditions: elevated mortgage rates locking would-be buyers in the rental pool, limited for-sale inventory, and Residents who are increasingly likely to renew rather than move.
In Arizona, Rentometer's mid-2026 analysis of three-bedroom single-family asking rents shows the market stabilizing after a period of declines. Gilbert sits at $2,295 per month, down just 0.2% from a year ago. Tucson has turned positive, coming in at $1,897, up 0.1% year over year. Phoenix is at $2,200, down 2.2% but improving: after falling 1.4% in the first nine months of 2025, Phoenix rents have risen 0.3% in the same stretch of 2026.
The pressure on Arizona rents came primarily from apartment construction and build-to-rent communities adding inventory faster than demand absorbed it. That supply cycle is slowing. Single-family homes, which On Q specializes in managing, tend to attract Residents with longer time horizons who treat the property as a home rather than a temporary stop.
In Texas, the demand picture is stronger. Texas added residents faster than almost any other state, reaching 31.7 million people in 2025, the fourth-highest growth rate in the nation. Corporate relocation activity in Dallas and Austin continues to bring in qualified professionals who need housing quickly and are not in a position to buy. At the same time, Texas A&M's Real Estate Center projects single-family rents to edge upward statewide, while apartment rents remain soft from elevated recent construction.
A TurboTenant survey of independent landlords in early 2026 put the stability picture in numbers: 81% of landlords reported that rental demand held steady or increased year over year. Forty-four percent of landlords did not raise rent at all. Most of those who did raised it by less than 5%.
What Low Turnover Actually Means for a Homeowner
A Resident who renews is worth more than the rent amount alone. Turnover is one of the most expensive events in property management. When a Resident moves out, the property sits vacant while it is cleaned, repaired, marketed, and shown. The average vacancy period costs the Homeowner rent income for every day it continues. Then there are application processing, leasing fees, any needed repairs or updates between Residents, and the time the Property Manager spends getting the home back into market condition and placed.
A Resident who renews skips all of that. The property generates income without interruption. The Homeowner avoids the cost and uncertainty of a turnover cycle. The Resident avoids the expense and stress of moving, which according to the same research now averages significant out-of-pocket costs in application fees, security deposits, and moving expenses. Both sides benefit from stability.
This is not a coincidence in markets like Phoenix, Tucson, Dallas, and Austin. Residents with steady incomes who cannot afford to buy at current mortgage rates are looking for properties worth staying in. A well-maintained, professionally managed single-family home is exactly what that population wants, and they are willing to renew when the management experience supports it.
The Role Property Management Plays
Resident retention does not happen automatically. It reflects how the property is managed. Residents renew when maintenance requests get handled without a fight. When the person responsible for their property is reachable and knows who they are. When rent collection is straightforward, financial statements are clear, and communication is consistent. When a problem at the property gets resolved rather than deferred.
On Q Property Management builds its systems around that standard. Every property is assigned a dedicated Property Manager who serves as the single point of contact for both the Homeowner and the Resident throughout the lease. That Property Manager handles maintenance coordination, lease renewals, Resident communication, and the ongoing management of the relationship. Homeowners are not routing questions through a general inbox, and Residents are not trying to reach someone who does not know their unit.
Maintenance routes through the On Q Cloud portal and, for properties in the greater Phoenix area, gets handled by Mammoth Services, On Q's in-house licensed maintenance company. For Texas markets, On Q's in-house maintenance team coordinates a vetted vendor network across Dallas and Austin. Every job is documented with before-and-after photos. The Homeowner sees what was done. The Resident gets the repair handled.
That consistency is what makes renewals more likely. A Resident who has had a positive experience for twelve months has little reason to absorb the cost and disruption of a move. A Resident who has been waiting three weeks for a maintenance response has every reason to look elsewhere.
The Takeaway for Rental Homeowners
The data on renter mobility points in one direction: the structural conditions keeping Residents in place are not going away in the near term. Mortgage rates remain elevated. For-sale inventory remains limited. First-time buyers are older, fewer, and facing more barriers than at any point in the past several decades.
For Homeowners with property in Phoenix, Tucson, Dallas, or Austin, this means the renter pool is not shrinking. It means Residents who find a property worth staying in tend to stay. And it means the quality of management determines whether those Residents renew or move on.
On Q Property Management works with Homeowners across all four markets who want their properties managed in a way that supports long-term Resident relationships without requiring the Homeowner to be involved in the day-to-day. For Homeowners looking to understand what that looks like for their specific property, the conversation starts at onqpm.com.
Better Residents, Faster. Management you can trust.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are renters really staying in their homes longer?
Yes. According to CBRE's 2026 data, renewed leases now account for 57% of all U.S. apartment leasing activity, up from 51% in 2015. Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies put household mobility at an all-time low of 11.2% in 2024. Residents across the country are staying in place longer than at any point in recent history.
Why are renters choosing not to move?
The biggest factor is the mortgage lock-in effect. With 30-year mortgage rates at 6.71% in September 2026 compared to 2.65% in January 2021, buying a home costs significantly more per month than it did a few years ago. Nearly half of all outstanding U.S. mortgages carry rates of 4% or lower, which means homeowners are not selling, inventory is tight, and would-be buyers are staying in the rental market longer. First-time buyers now make up a record-low 21% of the market, with a median age of 40.
What does low renter mobility mean for Homeowners?
A Resident who renews saves the Homeowner the cost and vacancy time of a turnover. Turnover involves cleaning, repairs, marketing, showing, and the period the property sits empty between Residents. Residents who stay reduce all of those costs and keep the property generating income without interruption.
What do rents look like in the On Q markets right now?
As of mid-2026, three-bedroom single-family asking rents are $2,200 in Phoenix, $2,295 in Gilbert, and $1,897 in Tucson. Tucson has turned slightly positive year over year, and Gilbert is essentially flat. In Texas, single-family rents are projected to edge upward statewide, with strong rental demand driven by continued population growth and corporate relocation activity in Dallas and Austin.
How does On Q Property Management support Resident retention?
Every property On Q manages is assigned a dedicated Property Manager who handles the full relationship with the Homeowner and Resident. Maintenance requests go through the On Q Cloud portal and are coordinated by On Q's in-house maintenance team, with before-and-after photo documentation on every job. Residents who get maintenance handled quickly and communication handled consistently have less reason to move.
Where does On Q Property Management operate?
On Q manages single-family rental homes in the greater Phoenix area, Tucson, the greater Dallas area, and the greater Austin area, including surrounding communities within approximately a 60-mile radius of each location.
